Why do we need a new internet protocol?
If it’s not broke, why fix it? Simple... For the internet to function as designed, every host needs a globally unique address. IPv4 (the current protocol) supports a bit less than 4 billion such addresses. When the expectation was that a few research institutions, universities, military installations, etc. were going to need IPv4 addresses and little else, this was a vast, seemingly infinite space. However, the World Wide Web changed all that in the mid-1990s and now it doesn’t take a lot of math to realize that with 6 billion+ people, cellphones, laptops, desktops, servers, web sites, etc. all needing addresses, IPv4 runs out fairly soon.
To fully understand the nuances of runout is beyond the scope of this paper, but, some basics are in order here. IP address uniqueness is maintained by a central assignment authority called IANA (Internet Assigned Numbers Authority). IANA hands addresses out to a group of Regional Internet Registries (RIR) in very large blocks (about 16.7 million addresses per block) called “slash-8s”, usually written as /8. There are currently 5 RIRs. When IANA has only 5 /8s remaining, IANA will give one /8 to each RIR. This event is expected to occur some time in late 2011 based on current projections.
Once IANA runs out, the RIRs will probably be able to continue making allocations for 1-2 years (the more active regions such as Europe, Asia-Pacific, and North America running out sooner).
Shortly after RIRs run out of space, Internet Service Providers (ISPs) will start running out. When this happens, new customers connecting to ISPs will have to be more creative than merely asking for addresses. Possibly purchasing them on a transfer market, possibly using only IPv6, etc.
The author believes that the first IPv6-only networks will be in the residential broad-band market (cable, FIOS/BPON/GPON, DSL, etc.). While the service providers will provide IPv6 to IPv4 gateway services, these users will experience various levels of service impairment when connecting to IPv4-based services.